Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.389941 2.795545 3.245796 3.782224 4.403507 5.100027 5.939773
2025-12-14 1.693351 2.214278 2.855981 3.702646 4.788436 6.132169 7.919464
2025-12-21 1.293765 1.854941 2.607989 3.687981 5.192327 7.208227 10.108943
2025-12-28 1.119963 1.734292 2.619577 3.980067 6.008615 8.909932 13.360954
2026-01-04 0.939831 1.557914 2.506344 4.054992 6.505429 10.214099 16.227952
2026-01-11 0.802955 1.414987 2.408466 4.120833 6.977084 11.521577 19.259491
2026-01-18 0.686993 1.280743 2.295581 4.133444 7.349853 12.704773 22.234094
2026-01-25 0.588176 1.155740 2.173599 4.103574 7.634660 13.764430 25.124370
2026-02-01 0.479691 0.991898 1.954201 3.861463 7.503201 14.083215 26.759386
2026-02-08 0.405261 0.879080 1.808852 3.729403 7.545056 14.699921 28.986428
2026-02-15 0.354720 0.804820 1.724794 3.699914 7.771792 15.674727 31.987554
2026-02-22 0.327787 0.775282 1.724986 3.837705 8.343598 17.369022 36.572272
2026-03-01 0.286778 0.709291 1.642896 3.800305 8.571149 18.453300 40.167237
2026-03-08 0.251133 0.649262 1.564780 3.761231 8.794411 19.568543 43.999800
2026-03-15 0.223130 0.602102 1.507734 3.760268 9.101224 20.899594 48.469866
2026-03-22 0.216980 0.608393 1.576456 4.062959 10.140370 23.945458 57.074969
2026-03-29 0.198485 0.578933 1.553666 4.141151 10.664603 25.910440 63.501747
2026-04-05 0.181603 0.550455 1.528460 4.208947 11.172792 27.901013 70.238025
2026-04-12 0.164215 0.517049 1.484802 4.222026 11.546120 29.619819 76.545400
2026-04-19 0.147161 0.481126 1.428270 4.191609 11.803067 31.088451 82.427902
2026-04-26 0.124390 0.423085 1.300421 3.944516 11.451204 31.001266 84.415736
2026-05-03 0.108496 0.383184 1.217318 3.809727 11.383217 31.625460 88.301523
2026-05-10 0.097764 0.357802 1.172663 3.779629 11.603171 33.028651 94.408670